When we first said three weeks ago that the spectacular, sudden implosion of Canada's largest alt-lender Home Capital Group or HCG - whose fate we had followed closely since 2015 - was Canada's own "New Century Moment", the parallels were more than just the obvious: like in the US, it took the market nearly a year to realize the full implications of the subprime collapse which first manifested in the failure of New Century and its subprime lender peers. When all was said and done, the world's central banks had to pump (and still do) trillions into the financial system to stop it from disintegrating.
Slowly but surely, Canada is starting to appreciate just how serious the Home Capital failure is, and how the unprecedented bank run ]that has led to 94% of retail deposits fleeing the troubled lender
... is just the first step of what will likely be a very painful process, which will likely culminate with either a government bailout, or a financial system on the verge of panic.
How quickly can a financial institution go from seemingly healthy and solvent to being on the verge of liquidation? The answer: hours..
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