Russia is, all in all, far from being in the overwhelming position of decisive strength that is generally assumed. Of course, it is a much more formidable country than Ukraine, but it has less than four times Ukraine’s population, and is now facing open-ended costs and trying to finance this very disreputable invasion on a relatively primitive economy with a GDP smaller than Canada‘s and under heavy strain of sanctions. Most importantly, this week there have been intimations from Russia’s new big brother, China, which is indirectly inconvenienced by western sanctions on Russia, that it desires a negotiated end to the conflict. This may explain why the very tentative peace talks, for which little was expected, are continuing to a third session.
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